Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Blue Jays LAD @ TOR

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

8-2  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Apr 7 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

4-6  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Edwin Diaz
STARTING PITCHER

Edwin Diaz

#3 | Relief Pitcher
@
Louis Varland
STARTING PITCHER

Louis Varland

#77 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edwin Diaz None-None 1.80 -- 1.0 3
Louis Varland None-None 0.00 -- 1.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.80 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
0%
📊
BLUE JAYS
100%
DODGERS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

69.1%

Blue Jays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TOR By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
LOS ANGELES
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Blue Jays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 LAD @ TOR 3 - 4
Apr 7, 2026 LAD @ TOR 4 - 1
Apr 6, 2026 LAD @ TOR 14 - 2
Nov 1, 2025 LAD @ TOR 5 - 4
Oct 31, 2025 LAD @ TOR 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.762 ▲
OPS
.692
204 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +85.8% more
Los Angeles: 3.2 vs Toronto: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +66.0% more
Los Angeles: 25.1 vs Toronto: 8.5
Hits (L5) +52.4% more
Los Angeles: 13.5 vs Toronto: 6.4
Home Runs (Season) +25.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.0 4
TOR Score 2.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 13.5 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 3.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.4 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 8.5 / 25.1 9.0 / 10.0
Walks 4.1 / 4.2 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
LAD
TOR
LAD
ML
46% 74-87
56% 92-73
50% 80-80
48% 79-87
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 98-67
49% 79-81
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 80-76-5
48% 77-82-6
45% 70-85-5
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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