Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Guardians CHC @ CLE

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

4-4  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Apr 5 • 4:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

5-4  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 0.00 -- 1.1 --
Tim Herrin None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
📊
GUARDIANS
0%
CUBS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

40.1%

Guardians Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CHICAGO
4
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
7
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 CHC @ CLE 5 - 6
Apr 3, 2026 CHC @ CLE 1 - 4
Jul 3, 2025 CLE @ CHC 0 - 1
Jul 2, 2025 CLE @ CHC 4 - 5
Jul 1, 2025 CLE @ CHC 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Cleveland CLE
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .380
.374
OPS
▲ .696
0
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16200.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +369.0% more
Cleveland: 4.2 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +78.0% more
Cleveland: 1.3 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +32.2%
Cleveland: 69.6% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.0 5
CLE Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 6.7 1.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 9.0 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 9.7 2.0 / 2.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.6 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CHC
CLE
CHC
ML
54% 87-74
58% 93-68
49% 80-82
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-68
61% 97-63-1
59% 95-67
47% 75-85-1
TTL
55% 88-71-2
52% 81-74-6
43% 69-90-2
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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