MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
25-52 | Road
115
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
30-47 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
BUCKS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MEM By 1-7 points
24.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIL By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
111
MEMPHIS
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Milwaukee
121
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u228.5
Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
MEM @ MIL
115 - 131
Dec 26, 2025
MIL @ MEM
104 - 125
Feb 2, 2025
MEM @ MIL
132 - 119
Oct 31, 2024
MIL @ MEM
99 - 122
Apr 3, 2024
MEM @ MIL
111 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+17.9% more
Milwaukee: 38.7
vs
Memphis: 32.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
Milwaukee: 41.3%
vs
Memphis: 33.8%
Steals (L5)
+25.6% more
Memphis: 8.5
vs
Milwaukee: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
111.0
115
MIL Score
112.0
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.3 / 33.8
50.0 / 37.0
Assists
23.7 / 22.5
30.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.6
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 45.3
60.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 77.1
63.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
38.7 / 32.8
44.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.4 / 8.5
11.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 17.2
20.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MEM
MIL
MEM
ML
64%
61-35
57%
59-44
60%
49-32
50%
41-41
ATS
68%
65-31
63%
65-38
60%
49-32
50%
41-41
TTL
55%
53-43
70%
71-31-1
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
Contextual Game News
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
Phoenix Suns 2026-27 Season Preview: Can Devin Booker and the Re…
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
Heat's Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Can Miami Make It …