Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Tigers STL @ DET

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

4-4  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Apr 5 • 7:20 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

4-4  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Keider Montero
STARTING PITCHER

Keider Montero

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Keider Montero None-None 4.15 -- 4.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 4.15
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
CARDINALS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Tigers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ST. LOUIS
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 STL @ DET 5 - 3
Apr 4, 2026 STL @ DET 6 - 11
Apr 3, 2026 STL @ DET 0 - 4
May 21, 2025 DET @ STL 5 - 1
May 20, 2025 DET @ STL 5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.691
OPS
▲ .720
167
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +93.0% more
Detroit: 1.6 vs St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +79.0% more
Detroit: 16.6 vs St. Louis: 9.3
Hits (L5) +56.2% more
Detroit: 9.3 vs St. Louis: 6.0
Strikeouts (L5) +27.4% more
Detroit: 8.1 vs St. Louis: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 5
DET Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 6.0 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 6.3 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.6 / 9.3 10.0 / 6.0
Walks 4.2 / 4.2 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
STL
DET
STL
ML
54% 86-73
53% 85-74
54% 87-73
52% 84-77
ATS
64% 101-58
56% 89-70
57% 91-69
53% 85-76
TTL
46% 69-81-9
46% 68-81-10
46% 69-81-10
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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