NEW YORK
METSNYM
5-4 | Road
5
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
3-6 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
JT Brubaker
#34 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 3.09 | -- | 5.2 | 7 |
| JT Brubaker | None-None | 4.05 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.09 Ldr
ERA
4.05
--
WHIP
--
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
GIANTS
0%
METS
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
SF @ NYM
2 - 4
Sep 5, 2026
SF @ NYM
9 - 5
Sep 4, 2026
SF @ NYM
6 - 10
Apr 5, 2026
NYM @ SF
5 - 2
Apr 4, 2026
NYM @ SF
9 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.705
OPS
▲
.706
204
▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+69.0% more
San Francisco: 1.2
vs
New York: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+24.2% more
San Francisco: 9.6
vs
New York: 7.7
Walks (L5)
+14.5% more
San Francisco: 3.6
vs
New York: 3.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
San Francisco: 24.5%
vs
New York: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.0
5
SF Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.3 / 9.9
7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 7.7
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
8.8 / 15.8
8.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
Advantage
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
NYM
SF
NYM
ML
49%
79-81
50%
79-80
53%
85-75
48%
76-83
ATS
62%
100-60
58%
93-66
52%
83-77
49%
78-81
TTL
55%
82-68-10
55%
80-66-13
46%
68-81-11
51%
74-72-13
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