SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
3-5 | Road
8
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
2-6 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 9.64 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
9.64
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
RED SOX
0%
PADRES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Boston
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
SD @ BOS
8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
SD @ BOS
3 - 2
Apr 3, 2026
SD @ BOS
2 - 5
Aug 10, 2025
BOS @ SD
2 - 6
Aug 9, 2025
BOS @ SD
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Boston
BOS
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.925
▲
OPS
.409
4
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+70.4% more
Boston: 3.3
vs
San Diego: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+69.0% more
Boston: 1.0
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Errors (L5)
+55.0% more
Boston: 0.9
vs
San Diego: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+21.8% more
Boston: 12.0
vs
San Diego: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.0
8
BOS Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 6.4
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 9.1
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 9.9
15.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.0
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SD
BOS
SD
ML
50%
80-80
51%
85-83
47%
76-87
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
93-67
54%
91-77
48%
79-84
55%
92-75
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
82-80-6
47%
74-83-6
54%
86-74-6
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