Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Tigers STL @ DET

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

4-3  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Apr 4 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

3-4  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kenley Jansen
STARTING PITCHER

Kenley Jansen

#74 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 11.81 -- 2.1 1
Kenley Jansen None-None 5.40 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
11.81 ERA Ldr 5.40
-- WHIP --
2.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
CARDINALS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Tigers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ST. LOUIS
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 STL @ DET 5 - 3
Apr 4, 2026 STL @ DET 6 - 11
Apr 3, 2026 STL @ DET 0 - 4
May 21, 2025 DET @ STL 5 - 1
May 20, 2025 DET @ STL 5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.691
OPS
▲ .720
167
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +41.4% more
Detroit: 11.9 vs St. Louis: 8.4
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
Detroit: 1.0 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +38.0% more
Detroit: 7.6 vs St. Louis: 5.5
Hits (L5) +34.0% more
Detroit: 8.0 vs St. Louis: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 6
DET Score 4.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 6.0 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.5 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 5.5 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 8.4 26.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.4 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
STL
DET
STL
ML
54% 86-73
53% 85-74
54% 87-73
52% 84-77
ATS
64% 101-58
56% 89-70
57% 91-69
53% 85-76
TTL
46% 69-81-9
46% 68-81-10
46% 69-81-10
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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