SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
59-18 | Road
134
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
49-28 | Home
136
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
SPURS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
SA By 1-7 points
24.3%
SA By 8-14 points
13.7%
DEN By 1-7 points
26.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
116
SAN ANTONIO
Denver
117
DENVER
Simulated Score
San Antonio
106
SAN ANTONIO
Denver
122
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u242.5
Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u242.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
128 - 118
Apr 4, 2026
SA @ DEN
134 - 136
Mar 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
136 - 131
Nov 28, 2025
SA @ DEN
139 - 136
Apr 2, 2025
SA @ DEN
113 - 106
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Denver: 43.1%
vs
San Antonio: 37.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Denver: 83.9%
vs
San Antonio: 80.3%
Blocks (L5)
+19.0% more
San Antonio: 4.3
vs
Denver: 3.5
Turnovers (L5)
+10.1% more
San Antonio: 14.2
vs
Denver: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
116.0
134
DEN Score
117.0
136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.1 / 37.2
41.0 / 33.0
Assists
32.1 / 32.1
34.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.3
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 51.0
49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
83.9 / 80.3
86.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
47.4 / 49.7
44.0 / 50.0
Steals
7.3 / 7.8
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 14.2
6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SA
DEN
SA
ML
54%
57-48
60%
111-73
55%
47-39
58%
61-44
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
107-76-1
55%
47-39
58%
61-44
TTL
54%
56-48-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
86-0
100%
105-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
Wallabies Select Suaalii on Wing, Henry to Debut in Bledisloe Cu…
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…