BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
46-22-8 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
38-29-9 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 30.66 | 0.400 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.00 | 0.949 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
30.66
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.400
Save %
Ldr 0.949
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
CAPITALS
0%
SABRES
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
BUF @ WSH
2 - 6
Mar 12, 2026
WSH @ BUF
2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Mar 30, 2025
BUF @ WSH
8 - 5
Jan 6, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+46.8% more
Washington: 5.7
vs
Buffalo: 3.9
Blocked Shots (L5)
+37.6% more
Washington: 16.7
vs
Buffalo: 12.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.0%
Washington: 50.1%
vs
Buffalo: 48.1%
Hits (L5)
+16.3% more
Buffalo: 23.7
vs
Washington: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
2
WSH Score
4.0
6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BUF
WSH
BUF
ML
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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