SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
2-4 | Road
2
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
1-5 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
RED SOX
0%
PADRES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Boston
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
SD @ BOS
8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
SD @ BOS
3 - 2
Apr 3, 2026
SD @ BOS
2 - 5
Aug 10, 2025
BOS @ SD
2 - 6
Aug 9, 2025
BOS @ SD
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Boston
BOS
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.925
▲
OPS
.409
4
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+99.0% more
Boston: 1.3
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Home Runs (L5)
+54.0% more
Boston: 1.2
vs
San Diego: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+83.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+51.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.0
2
BOS Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.1 / 7.2
9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.5
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 11.2
17.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.2
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SD
BOS
SD
ML
50%
80-80
51%
85-83
47%
76-87
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
93-67
54%
91-77
48%
79-84
55%
92-75
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
82-80-6
47%
74-83-6
54%
86-74-6
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