ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
4-2 | Road
0
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
2-4 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
TIGERS
0%
CARDINALS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
STL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
STL @ DET
5 - 3
Apr 4, 2026
STL @ DET
6 - 11
Apr 3, 2026
STL @ DET
0 - 4
May 21, 2025
DET @ STL
5 - 1
May 20, 2025
DET @ STL
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.691
OPS
▲
.720
167
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+20.1% more
Detroit: 6.9
vs
St. Louis: 5.8
Errors (L5)
+10.0% more
Detroit: 0.9
vs
St. Louis: 0.8
Hits (L5)
+8.5% more
Detroit: 7.0
vs
St. Louis: 6.5
Home Runs (Season)
+8.4% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.0
0
DET Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.5
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.1 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 5.8
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 10.1
15.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.0
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
STL
DET
STL
ML
54%
86-73
53%
85-74
54%
87-73
52%
84-77
ATS
64%
101-58
56%
89-70
57%
91-69
53%
85-76
TTL
46%
69-81-9
46%
68-81-10
46%
69-81-10
50%
76-75-10
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