ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
28-8 | Road
62
UCONN
HUSKIESCONN
33-5 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
HUSKIES
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UConn)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CONN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)
ILL By 1-7 points
23.0%
ILL By 8-14 points
12.2%
CONN By 1-7 points
26.8%
CONN By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
70
ILLINOIS
UConn
72
UCONN
Simulated Score
Illinois
72
ILLINOIS
UConn
78
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Huskies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Huskies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Huskies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
ILL @ CONN
62 - 71
Nov 28, 2025
ILL @ CONN
61 - 74
Mar 30, 2024
ILL @ CONN
52 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+71.1% more
UConn: 7.0
vs
Illinois: 4.1
Blocks (L5)
+45.7% more
UConn: 5.6
vs
Illinois: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+44.4% more
UConn: 17.5
vs
Illinois: 12.2
Turnovers (L5)
+22.1% more
UConn: 9.8
vs
Illinois: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
70.0
62
CONN Score
72.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.0 / 30.1
36.0 / 23.0
Assists
17.5 / 12.2
14.0 / 3.0
Blocks
5.6 / 3.9
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 46.4
35.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
73.8 / 73.1
88.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 41.0
37.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.0 / 4.1
6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 8.0
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
CONN
Advantage
34-6-0
(85.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
CONN
18-22-0
(45.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
ILL
CONN
ILL
ML
76%
29-9
65%
24-13
66%
23-12
57%
20-15
ATS
74%
28-10
70%
26-11
66%
23-12
57%
20-15
TTL
50%
19-19
57%
21-16
100%
35-0
100%
35-0
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