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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

32-30-13  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 10:00 PM ET
SAP Center at San Jose
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

35-31-7  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
@
Alex Nedeljkovic
GOALTENDER

Alex Nedeljkovic

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Anthony Stolarz None-None 3.14 0.875 --
Alex Nedeljkovic None-None 1.00 0.950 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.14 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.875 Save % Ldr 0.950
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
SHARKS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
SHARKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN JOSE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 SharksSJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Sharks Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around SJ +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJ)

TOR By 1 goal

19.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

SJ By 1 goal

12.1%

SJ By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
2
SAN JOSE
Simulated Score
6
TORONTO
3
SAN JOSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sharks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 TOR @ SJ 1 - 4
Dec 11, 2025 SJ @ TOR 3 - 2
Mar 27, 2025 TOR @ SJ 5 - 6
Mar 3, 2025 SJ @ TOR 3 - 2
Jan 9, 2024 SJ @ TOR 1 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +31.8% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs San Jose: 18.8
Faceoff % (L5) +11.9%
Toronto: 52.8% vs San Jose: 40.9%
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.3% more
Toronto: 26.1 vs San Jose: 23.1
Hits (L5) +8.9% more
Toronto: 24.4 vs San Jose: 22.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 1
SJ Score 2.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
48%MONEY52%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJ
TOR
SJ
TOR
ML
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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