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DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

39-27-8  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

37-25-12  |  Home

2
Goaltending
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
@
Cam York
GOALTENDER

Cam York

#8 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
John Gibson None-None 2.00 0.941 --
Cam York None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 GAA --
0.941 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
0%
📊
FLYERS
100%
RED WINGS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red WingsDET (-3.5) 0 FlyersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wings Cover

30.9%

Flyers Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

DET By 1 goal

19.7%

DET By 2-3 goals

29.6%

PHI By 1 goal

12.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DETROIT
2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Wings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 PHI @ DET 3 - 6
Apr 2, 2026 DET @ PHI 4 - 2
Mar 28, 2026 PHI @ DET 5 - 3
Jan 21, 2025 DET @ PHI 1 - 2
Dec 18, 2024 PHI @ DET 4 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +13.8% more
Detroit: 25.1 vs Philadelphia: 21.7
Takeaways (L5) +11.4% more
Detroit: 5.3 vs Philadelphia: 4.7
Power Play % (L5) +3.9%
Detroit: 24.3% vs Philadelphia: 20.4%
Hits (L5) +19.4% more
Philadelphia: 27.8 vs Detroit: 23.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 3.0 4
PHI Score 2.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
74%MONEY26%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DET
PHI
DET
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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