DETROIT
TIGERSDET
2-3 | Road
0
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
2-3 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Loaisiga
#43 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
TIGERS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
DET By 1-2 runs
16.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
DET @ ARI
0 - 1
Mar 31, 2026
DET @ ARI
5 - 7
Mar 30, 2026
DET @ ARI
6 - 9
Jul 30, 2025
ARI @ DET
2 - 7
Jul 29, 2025
ARI @ DET
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.720
OPS
.720
181
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+119.0% more
Arizona: 1.4
vs
Detroit: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+51.7% more
Arizona: 15.2
vs
Detroit: 10.0
Hits (L5)
+16.1% more
Arizona: 8.1
vs
Detroit: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.2% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Detroit: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.0
0
ARI Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 7.0
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.9
5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 10.0
10.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.3
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
DET
ARI
DET
ML
54%
87-74
54%
86-73
54%
86-74
54%
87-73
ATS
57%
91-70
64%
101-58
56%
89-71
57%
91-69
TTL
52%
80-73-8
46%
69-81-9
49%
73-77-9
46%
69-81-10
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