Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinal @ Mountaineers STAN @ WVU

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

20-12  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 8:00 PM ET
MGM Grand Garden Arena
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

18-14  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINAL
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
CARDINAL --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalSTAN (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinal Cover

46.0%

Mountaineers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WVU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

STAN By 1-7 points

26.2%

STAN By 8-14 points

16.9%

WVU By 1-7 points

24.3%

WVU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
66
STANFORD
65
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
70
STANFORD
75
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinal Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 STAN @ WVU 77 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +20.0% more
Stanford: 5.1 vs West Virginia: 4.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.6%
Stanford: 41.3% vs West Virginia: 28.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +10.9%
Stanford: 77.8% vs West Virginia: 66.9%
Steals (L5) +10.3% more
Stanford: 7.8 vs West Virginia: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 66.0 77
WVU Score 65.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 41.3 10.0 / 22.0
Assists 11.8 / 10.8 6.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.1 / 5.1 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 49.0 45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 66.9 / 77.8 85.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 32.6 / 30.8 37.0 / 47.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.8 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 8.8 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
WVU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
STAN
WVU
STAN
ML
63% 22-13
48% 16-17
76% 26-8
50% 16-16
ATS
60% 21-14
48% 16-17
76% 26-8
50% 16-16
TTL
40% 14-21
55% 18-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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