MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
30-45 | Road
113
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
46-29 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
BUCKS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIL By 1-7 points
3.3%
MIL By 8-14 points
0.6%
HOU By 1-7 points
12.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
106
MILWAUKEE
Houston
123
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o215.5
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u215.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
MIL @ HOU
113 - 119
Nov 9, 2025
HOU @ MIL
122 - 115
Feb 25, 2025
MIL @ HOU
97 - 100
Nov 18, 2024
HOU @ MIL
100 - 101
Jan 6, 2024
MIL @ HOU
108 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.7% more
Houston: 6.8
vs
Milwaukee: 4.8
Assists (L5)
+27.6% more
Houston: 31.6
vs
Milwaukee: 24.8
Rebounding (L5)
+14.4% more
Houston: 48.2
vs
Milwaukee: 42.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Houston: 49.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 46.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
106.0
113
HOU Score
123.0
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 37.6
43.0 / 43.0
Assists
31.6 / 24.8
30.0 / 21.0
Blocks
6.8 / 4.8
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 46.2
47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
78.2 / 78.6
86.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
48.2 / 42.2
42.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.0
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 19.0
8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIL
HOU
MIL
ML
61%
69-44
64%
61-35
59%
51-35
60%
49-32
ATS
62%
70-43
68%
65-31
59%
51-35
60%
49-32
TTL
51%
58-55
55%
53-43
100%
86-0
100%
81-0
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