SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
2-3 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
1-4 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Houser
#12 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Houser | None-None | 1.69 | -- | 5.1 | 4 |
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.69
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
PADRES
0%
GIANTS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SF By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SD @ SF
6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026
SF @ SD
4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
SF @ SD
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.706
OPS
▲
.925
178
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+45.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
San Diego: 0.5
vs
San Francisco: 0.2
OPS (Season)
+21.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.3%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
San Francisco: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
3.0
1
SD Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
5.8 / 9.2
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 9.5
14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
8.3 / 14.6
17.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.1
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SF
SD
SF
ML
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
53%
85-75
ATS
54%
91-77
62%
100-60
55%
92-75
52%
83-77
TTL
51%
82-80-6
55%
82-68-10
54%
86-74-6
46%
68-81-11
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