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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

1-4  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Apr 1 • 1:10 PM ET
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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

4-1  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Chris Murphy
STARTING PITCHER

Chris Murphy

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sandy Alcantara
STARTING PITCHER

Sandy Alcantara

#22 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chris Murphy None-None 13.50 -- 2.0 3
Sandy Alcantara None-None 0.00 -- 9.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
13.50 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 9.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
100%
📊
MARLINS
0%
WHITE SOX --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

40.1%

Marlins Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.6%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CHICAGO
3
MIAMI
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marlins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 CHW @ MIA 0 - 10
Mar 31, 2026 CHW @ MIA 2 - 9
Mar 30, 2026 CHW @ MIA 9 - 4
May 11, 2025 MIA @ CHW 2 - 4
May 10, 2025 MIA @ CHW 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Miami MIA
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.826 ▲
OPS
.727
1
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16700.0% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +28.2% more
Miami: 11.2 vs Chicago: 8.7
Hits (L5) +17.3% more
Miami: 8.4 vs Chicago: 7.2
Total Bases (L5) +9.6% more
Miami: 13.6 vs Chicago: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 2.0 0
MIA Score 3.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.2 13.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.2 / 8.7 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 12.4 25.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.3 / 4.4 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHW
MIA
CHW
ML
48% 78-84
49% 81-86
55% 88-72
56% 94-73
ATS
56% 91-71
59% 99-68
54% 86-74
56% 93-74
TTL
56% 88-69-5
58% 96-69-2
53% 82-73-5
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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