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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

3-1  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Mar 31 • 6:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

2-2  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jakob Junis
STARTING PITCHER

Jakob Junis

#16 | Relief Pitcher
@
Anthony Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Nunez

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jakob Junis None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Anthony Nunez None-None 2.25 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.25
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
📊
ORIOLES
100%
RANGERS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

40.1%

Orioles Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

16.3%

BAL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TEXAS
2
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 BAL @ TEX 10 - 5
Aug 8, 2026 BAL @ TEX 1 - 5
Aug 7, 2026 BAL @ TEX 1 - 2
Apr 1, 2026 TEX @ BAL 3 - 8
Mar 31, 2026 TEX @ BAL 8 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.713 ▲
OPS
.711
183
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +14.7% more
Texas: 1.0 vs Baltimore: 0.9
Hits (L5) +13.5% more
Texas: 8.4 vs Baltimore: 7.3
Total Bases (L5) +13.4% more
Texas: 13.0 vs Baltimore: 11.3
Batting Avg (Season) +0.8%
Texas: 24.2% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 3.0 8
BAL Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.4 9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 10.3 11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 13.0 14.0 / 26.0
Walks 4.4 / 3.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TEX
BAL
TEX
ML
53% 83-73
53% 86-76
57% 90-69
57% 91-70
ATS
61% 95-60-1
57% 92-70
57% 90-68-1
61% 98-63
TTL
54% 81-70-5
53% 78-70-14
51% 78-75-6
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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