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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

24-51  |  Road

99
FINAL
Tue, Mar 31 • 8:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

29-45  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
BUCKS
100%
MAVERICKS --
BUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 BucksMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

61.8%

Bucks Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

27.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

20.1%

MIL By 1-7 points

21.6%

MIL By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
111
DALLAS
108
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
110
DALLAS
125
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bucks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Bucks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u230.5 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim u230.5 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 DAL @ MIL 99 - 123
Nov 10, 2025 MIL @ DAL 116 - 114
Mar 5, 2025 DAL @ MIL 107 - 137
Mar 1, 2025 MIL @ DAL 132 - 117
Oct 17, 2024 MIL @ DAL 84 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.6% more
Dallas: 3.9 vs Milwaukee: 2.8
Rebounding (L5) +23.0% more
Dallas: 43.8 vs Milwaukee: 33.7
Assists (L5) +10.1% more
Dallas: 25.8 vs Milwaukee: 23.2
Turnovers (L5) +34.3% more
Milwaukee: 19.5 vs Dallas: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 111.0 99
MIL Score 108.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 31.3 37.0 / 28.0
Assists 23.2 / 25.8 28.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.9 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 43.8 45.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 73.8 81.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 43.8 59.0 / 50.0
Steals 10.1 / 7.8 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 19.5 / 14.5 18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIL Advantage
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
DAL
MIL
DAL
ML
64% 61-35
62% 63-39
60% 49-32
54% 44-37
ATS
68% 65-31
67% 68-34
60% 49-32
54% 44-37
TTL
55% 53-43
59% 60-41-1
100% 81-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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