DETROIT
TIGERSDET
2-2 | Road
5
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
1-3 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kenley Jansen
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley Jansen | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 7.50 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.75 Ldr
ERA
7.50
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
TIGERS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
DET By 1-2 runs
16.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
2
DETROIT
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
DET @ ARI
0 - 1
Mar 31, 2026
DET @ ARI
5 - 7
Mar 30, 2026
DET @ ARI
6 - 9
Jul 30, 2025
ARI @ DET
2 - 7
Jul 29, 2025
ARI @ DET
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.720
OPS
.720
181
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+79.0% more
Arizona: 1.1
vs
Detroit: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+29.5% more
Arizona: 14.3
vs
Detroit: 11.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+20.1% more
Arizona: 8.8
vs
Detroit: 7.4
Hits (L5)
+9.5% more
Arizona: 8.2
vs
Detroit: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
2.0
5
ARI Score
3.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.5
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.4
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 11.0
17.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.6 / 4.4
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
DET
ARI
DET
ML
54%
87-74
54%
86-73
54%
86-74
54%
87-73
ATS
57%
91-70
64%
101-58
56%
89-71
57%
91-69
TTL
52%
80-73-8
46%
69-81-9
49%
73-77-9
46%
69-81-10
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