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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

37-24-12  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Mar 31 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

37-28-9  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Dan Vladar
GOALTENDER

Dan Vladar

#80 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dan Vladar None-None 5.18 0.706 --
Logan Thompson None-None 4.01 0.833 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.18 GAA Ldr 4.01
0.706 Save % Ldr 0.833
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
FLYERS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

30.9%

Capitals Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

PHI By 1 goal

12.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PHILADELPHIA
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 PHI @ WSH 4 - 6
Mar 11, 2026 WSH @ PHI 1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026 PHI @ WSH 1 - 3
Feb 3, 2026 WSH @ PHI 2 - 4
Sep 25, 2025 PHI @ WSH 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +33.6% more
Washington: 29.0 vs Philadelphia: 21.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +13.4% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Philadelphia: 14.7
Faceoff % (L5) +2.9%
Washington: 50.1% vs Philadelphia: 47.2%
Hits (L5) +24.8% more
Philadelphia: 24.7 vs Washington: 18.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 2.0 4
WSH Score 3.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
51%MONEY49%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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