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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

2-1  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Mar 30 • 6:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

2-1  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Alexander
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Alexander

#13 | Relief Pitcher
@
Rico Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Rico Garcia

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Alexander None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
Rico Garcia None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
📊
ORIOLES
0%
RANGERS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

40.1%

Orioles Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

TEX By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

10.6%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TEXAS
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 BAL @ TEX 10 - 5
Aug 8, 2026 BAL @ TEX 1 - 5
Aug 7, 2026 BAL @ TEX 1 - 2
Apr 1, 2026 TEX @ BAL 3 - 8
Mar 31, 2026 TEX @ BAL 8 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.713 ▲
OPS
.711
183
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8 vs Texas: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +8.7% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Texas: 183.0
Runs per Game (Season) +7.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Texas: 4.2
Home Runs (L5) +47.4% more
Texas: 1.5 vs Baltimore: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 3.0 5
BAL Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 8.1 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 9.9 11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 14.0 11.0 / 11.0
Walks 4.1 / 4.4 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TEX
BAL
TEX
ML
53% 83-73
53% 86-76
57% 90-69
57% 91-70
ATS
61% 95-60-1
57% 92-70
57% 90-68-1
61% 98-63
TTL
54% 81-70-5
53% 78-70-14
51% 78-75-6
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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