Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Nuggets GS @ DEN

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

36-38  |  Road

93
FINAL
Sun, Mar 29 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

47-28  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
WARRIORS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Denver)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

9.7%

Nuggets Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

GS By 1-7 points

6.8%

GS By 8-14 points

1.7%

DEN By 1-7 points

18.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
118
GOLDEN STATE
131
DENVER
Simulated Score
110
GOLDEN STATE
122
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o238.0 Loss
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim u238.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 GS @ DEN 93 - 116
Feb 22, 2026 DEN @ GS 117 - 128
Nov 7, 2025 GS @ DEN 104 - 129
Oct 23, 2025 DEN @ GS 131 - 137
Apr 4, 2025 DEN @ GS 104 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.6% more
Denver: 34.2 vs Golden State: 28.6
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
Denver: 46.9 vs Golden State: 41.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Denver: 42.7% vs Golden State: 36.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.7%
Denver: 79.7% vs Golden State: 77.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 118.0 93
DEN Score 131.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.7 / 36.8 47.0 / 33.0
Assists 34.2 / 28.6 31.0 / 29.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.4 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.0 / 50.3 50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 77.0 92.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 46.9 / 41.8 40.0 / 41.0
Steals 4.1 / 9.2 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 19.0 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
GS
DEN
GS
ML
54% 57-48
55% 95-79
55% 47-39
58% 49-35
ATS
63% 65-38-2
58% 101-73
55% 47-39
58% 49-35
TTL
54% 56-48-1
77% 134-40
100% 86-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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