ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
0-2 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
2-0 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Morales
#19 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Morales | None-None | 10.38 | -- | 4.1 | 5 |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 54.00 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
10.38 Ldr
ERA
54.00
--
WHIP
--
4.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
BLUE JAYS
0%
ATHLETICS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
2
ATHLETICS
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Athletics (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
TOR @ ATH
0 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
TOR @ ATH
4 - 2
Sep 7, 2026
TOR @ ATH
5 - 6
Mar 29, 2026
ATH @ TOR
2 - 5
Mar 28, 2026
ATH @ TOR
7 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.719
▲
OPS
.692
194
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+130.3% more
Toronto: 14.1
vs
Athletics: 6.1
Hits (L5)
+66.7% more
Toronto: 11.1
vs
Athletics: 6.7
Total Bases (L5)
+40.0% more
Toronto: 15.8
vs
Athletics: 11.3
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Athletics: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
2.0
2
TOR Score
3.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.1 / 6.7
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
14.1 / 6.1
15.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 11.3
15.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.0 / 5.0
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ATH
TOR
ATH
ML
46%
74-87
59%
95-67
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
90-71
52%
84-78
49%
79-81
50%
81-80
TTL
51%
80-76-5
54%
84-73-5
45%
70-85-5
42%
66-90-5
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