TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
0-2 | Road
11
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
2-0 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
George Soriano
#65 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| George Soriano | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
RAYS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
7
TAMPA BAY
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
TB @ STL
11 - 7
Mar 28, 2026
TB @ STL
5 - 6
Mar 26, 2026
TB @ STL
7 - 9
Aug 24, 2025
STL @ TB
2 - 7
Aug 22, 2025
STL @ TB
6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.728
▲
OPS
.691
169
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+35.1% more
St. Louis: 3.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+19.0% more
St. Louis: 0.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+17.5% more
Tampa Bay: 1.0
vs
St. Louis: 0.9
Hits (L5)
+16.6% more
Tampa Bay: 9.9
vs
St. Louis: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
11
STL Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.9
11.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.6
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.6
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 11.9
22.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.5
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
TB
STL
TB
ML
53%
85-74
58%
95-68
52%
84-77
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
89-70
60%
97-66
53%
85-76
55%
90-73
TTL
46%
68-81-10
47%
73-81-9
50%
76-75-10
51%
78-75-10
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