DETROIT
PISTONSDET
53-20 | Road
109
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
45-28 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
PISTONS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
26.8%
DET By 8-14 points
18.6%
MIN By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIN By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
120
DETROIT
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Minnesota
105
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Pistons (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.5
Loss
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u220.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
MIN @ DET
108 - 113
Mar 28, 2026
DET @ MIN
109 - 87
Mar 30, 2025
DET @ MIN
104 - 123
Jan 4, 2025
MIN @ DET
105 - 119
Mar 27, 2024
DET @ MIN
91 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.8% more
Detroit: 32.2
vs
Minnesota: 26.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Detroit: 51.4%
vs
Minnesota: 44.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.4%
Detroit: 80.6%
vs
Minnesota: 76.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Detroit: 39.7%
vs
Minnesota: 36.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
120.0
109
MIN Score
118.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 39.7
21.0 / 38.0
Assists
26.1 / 32.2
18.0 / 28.0
Blocks
8.1 / 5.3
4.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 51.4
32.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 80.6
73.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
48.4 / 43.1
38.0 / 52.0
Steals
9.7 / 10.0
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 15.1
15.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
54%
63-53
55%
64-53
54%
50-43
49%
47-49
ATS
58%
67-49
53%
60-54-3
54%
50-43
49%
47-49
TTL
63%
72-43-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
93-0
100%
96-0
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