DETROIT
TIGERSDET
2-0 | Road
0
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
0-2 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Flaherty
#9 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 4.1 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.15
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
4.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
PADRES
0%
TIGERS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
DET By 1-2 runs
16.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
2
DETROIT
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Detroit
6
DETROIT
San Diego
2
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
DET @ SD
0 - 3
Mar 27, 2026
DET @ SD
5 - 2
Mar 26, 2026
DET @ SD
8 - 2
Apr 23, 2025
SD @ DET
0 - 6
Apr 22, 2025
SD @ DET
2 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
181
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Detroit: 4.5
Walks (L5)
+32.6% more
San Diego: 4.5
vs
Detroit: 3.4
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Detroit: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.3%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Detroit: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
2.0
0
SD Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.4
7.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 11.3
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 12.0
7.0 / 3.0
Walks
4.5 / 3.4
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
DET
SD
DET
ML
51%
85-83
54%
86-73
51%
85-82
54%
87-73
ATS
54%
91-77
64%
101-58
55%
92-75
57%
91-69
TTL
51%
82-80-6
46%
69-81-9
54%
86-74-6
46%
69-81-10
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