Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Cardinals TB @ STL

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

0-1  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

1-0  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Griffin Jax
STARTING PITCHER

Griffin Jax

#22 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ryne Stanek
STARTING PITCHER

Ryne Stanek

#55 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Griffin Jax None-None 18.00 -- 0.1 --
Ryne Stanek None-None 3.86 -- 1.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
18.00 ERA Ldr 3.86
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
RAYS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

TB By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 TB @ STL 11 - 7
Mar 28, 2026 TB @ STL 5 - 6
Mar 26, 2026 TB @ STL 7 - 9
Aug 24, 2025 STL @ TB 2 - 7
Aug 22, 2025 STL @ TB 6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.728 ▲
OPS
.691
169 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +30.1% more
St. Louis: 3.6 vs Tampa Bay: 2.8
Home Runs (L5) +28.0% more
St. Louis: 1.1 vs Tampa Bay: 0.8
Errors (L5) +73.1% more
Tampa Bay: 1.0 vs St. Louis: 0.3
Hits (L5) +17.2% more
Tampa Bay: 11.3 vs St. Louis: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 4.0 5
STL Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 11.3 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 7.4 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 14.4 8.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.8 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
TB
STL
TB
ML
53% 85-74
58% 95-68
52% 84-77
58% 95-68
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 97-66
53% 85-76
55% 90-73
TTL
46% 68-81-10
47% 73-81-9
50% 76-75-10
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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