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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

1-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

0-1  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Miles Mikolas
STARTING PITCHER

Miles Mikolas

#36 | SP
@
Jacob Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Webb

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Miles Mikolas None-None 7.20 -- 5.0 4
Jacob Webb None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
7.20 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
NATIONALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.1%

Cubs Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
WASHINGTON
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CHC @ WSH 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 CHC @ WSH 12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 CHC @ WSH 8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ CHC 6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ CHC 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.744 ▲
OPS
.374
210 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +90.1% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +54.6% more
Washington: 2.4 vs Chicago: 1.1
OPS (Season) +37.0%
Washington: 74.4% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.0 2
CHC Score 5.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.1 9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.3 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 16.0 16.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.0 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
WSH
CHC
WSH
ML
58% 93-68
57% 92-69
51% 82-79
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-68
47% 75-85-1
57% 91-70
TTL
52% 81-74-6
50% 77-78-6
46% 72-83-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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