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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

31-29-13  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Enterprise Center
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

30-30-11  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Jordan Binnington
GOALTENDER

Jordan Binnington

#50 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Jordan Binnington None-None 1.00 0.923 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.00
-- Save % 0.923
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
BLUES
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
BLUES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 BluesSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Blues Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

STL By 1 goal

19.7%

STL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TORONTO
3
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blues Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blues Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blues (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Blues (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 TOR @ STL 1 - 5
Nov 18, 2025 STL @ TOR 2 - 3
Nov 2, 2024 TOR @ STL 2 - 4
Oct 24, 2024 STL @ TOR 5 - 1
Feb 19, 2024 TOR @ STL 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +18.0% more
St. Louis: 30.8 vs Toronto: 26.1
Takeaways (L5) +16.3% more
St. Louis: 5.2 vs Toronto: 4.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +77.3% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs St. Louis: 6.3
Faceoff % (L5) +18.1%
Toronto: 52.8% vs St. Louis: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.0 1
STL Score 3.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
67%MONEY33%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
TOR
STL
TOR
ML
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 1-1-1
100% 4-0
50% 1-1-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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