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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

36-28-9  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 10:30 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

32-26-15  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
@
Adin Hill
GOALTENDER

Adin Hill

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Logan Thompson None-None 3.69 0.862 --
Adin Hill None-None 3.70 0.818 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.69 Ldr GAA 3.70
0.862 Ldr Save % 0.818
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
CAPITALS --
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

84.1%

Golden Knights Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1 goal

17.5%

WSH By 2-3 goals

37.2%

VGK By 1 goal

6.6%

VGK By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
1
VEGAS
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Capitals (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Golden Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ VGK 5 - 4
Feb 27, 2026 VGK @ WSH 2 - 3
Nov 17, 2024 WSH @ VGK 5 - 2
Oct 15, 2024 VGK @ WSH 2 - 4
Dec 2, 2023 WSH @ VGK 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +13.4% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Vegas: 14.5
Takeaways (L5) +13.0% more
Vegas: 5.0 vs Washington: 4.4
Power Play % (L5) +8.7%
Vegas: 22.6% vs Washington: 13.9%
Faceoff % (L5) +3.3%
Vegas: 53.3% vs Washington: 50.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 5
VGK Score 1.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
74%MONEY26%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
WSH
VGK
WSH
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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