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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

35-24-12  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

39-25-8  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Dan Vladar
GOALTENDER

Dan Vladar

#80 | Goaltender
@
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dan Vladar None-None 3.01 0.914 --
John Gibson None-None 5.07 0.810 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.01 Ldr GAA 5.07
0.914 Ldr Save % 0.810
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
RED WINGS
0%
FLYERS --
RED WINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 Red WingsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

30.9%

Red Wings Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

PHI By 1 goal

12.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

DET By 1 goal

19.7%

DET By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PHILADELPHIA
3
DETROIT
Simulated Score
2
PHILADELPHIA
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Wings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wings Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wings (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Red Wings (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 PHI @ DET 3 - 6
Apr 2, 2026 DET @ PHI 4 - 2
Mar 28, 2026 PHI @ DET 5 - 3
Jan 21, 2025 DET @ PHI 1 - 2
Dec 18, 2024 PHI @ DET 4 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +16.0% more
Detroit: 25.1 vs Philadelphia: 21.7
Power Play % (L5) +3.9%
Detroit: 24.3% vs Philadelphia: 20.4%
Blocked Shots (L5) +12.1% more
Philadelphia: 14.7 vs Detroit: 13.0
Hits (L5) +12.0% more
Philadelphia: 19.8 vs Detroit: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 2.0 5
DET Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
37%MONEY63%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PHI
DET
PHI
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-3
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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