IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
24-12 | Road
59
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
27-8 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
HAWKEYES
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
IOWA By 1-7 points
18.6%
IOWA By 8-14 points
8.0%
ILL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ILL By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa
63
IOWA
Illinois
68
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Iowa
74
IOWA
Illinois
78
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
IOWA @ ILL
59 - 71
Jan 11, 2026
ILL @ IOWA
75 - 69
Mar 13, 2025
IOWA @ ILL
94 - 106
Feb 25, 2025
IOWA @ ILL
61 - 81
Mar 10, 2024
ILL @ IOWA
73 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+244.0% more
Illinois: 3.3
vs
Iowa: 0.9
Rebounding (L5)
+50.0% more
Illinois: 42.6
vs
Iowa: 28.4
Steals (L5)
+41.4% more
Iowa: 5.4
vs
Illinois: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.9%
Iowa: 75.6%
vs
Illinois: 66.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score
63.0
59
ILL Score
68.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 36.4
18.0 / 37.0
Assists
14.2 / 14.7
8.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.3 / 0.9
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 48.6
47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
66.7 / 75.6
86.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
42.6 / 28.4
38.0 / 21.0
Steals
3.1 / 5.4
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 8.2
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
IOWA
ILL
IOWA
ML
65%
24-13
59%
22-15
57%
20-15
78%
28-8
ATS
70%
26-11
76%
28-9
57%
20-15
78%
28-8
TTL
57%
21-16
57%
21-16
100%
35-0
100%
36-0
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