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SEATTLE

KRAKENSEA

31-29-10  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Mar 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

44-21-5  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Philipp Grubauer
GOALTENDER

Philipp Grubauer

#31 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Philipp Grubauer None-None 2.87 0.909 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.82 0.800 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.87 Ldr GAA 3.82
0.909 Ldr Save % 0.800
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
KRAKEN
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
KRAKEN --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
KrakenSEA (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kraken Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

SEA By 1 goal

12.1%

SEA By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SEATTLE
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kraken Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Kraken (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 SEA @ TB 4 - 3
Mar 17, 2026 TB @ SEA 6 - 2
Feb 23, 2025 SEA @ TB 1 - 4
Dec 14, 2024 TB @ SEA 5 - 1
Dec 9, 2023 TB @ SEA 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +33.1% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Seattle: 25.0
Hits (L5) +10.0% more
Tampa Bay: 17.9 vs Seattle: 16.3
Faceoff % (L5) +6.8%
Tampa Bay: 49.8% vs Seattle: 43.0%
Power Play % (L5) +6.6%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Seattle: 24.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 2.0 4
TB Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
27%MONEY73%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SEA
TB
SEA
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
ATS
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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