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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

35-28-9  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Mar 26 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

MAMMOTHUTA

37-29-6  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
@
Karel Vejmelka
GOALTENDER

Karel Vejmelka

#70 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Logan Thompson None-None 4.00 0.900 --
Karel Vejmelka None-None 0.00 1.000 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.00 GAA Ldr 0.00
0.900 Save % Ldr 1.000
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
📊
MAMMOTH
100%
CAPITALS --
MAMMOTH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 MammothUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

84.1%

Mammoth Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1 goal

17.5%

WSH By 2-3 goals

37.2%

UTA By 1 goal

6.6%

UTA By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
1
UTAH
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
4
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mammoth Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Capitals (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Mammoth (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 WSH @ UTA 7 - 4
Mar 3, 2026 UTA @ WSH 3 - 2
Feb 9, 2025 UTA @ WSH 5 - 4
Nov 18, 2024 WSH @ UTA 6 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +68.6% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Utah: 5.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +24.0% more
Washington: 29.0 vs Utah: 22.0
Hits (L5) +19.8% more
Utah: 22.5 vs Washington: 18.8
Power Play % (L5) +19.1%
Utah: 33.0% vs Washington: 13.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 7
UTA Score 1.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
36%MONEY64%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
WSH
UTA
WSH
ML
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
TTL
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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