Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Illini @ Cougars ILL @ HOU

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

26-8  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Mar 26 • 10:05 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

30-6  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Fighting IlliniILL (-3.5) 0 CougarsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Illini Cover

46.0%

Cougars Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

ILL By 1-7 points

24.3%

ILL By 8-14 points

13.7%

HOU By 1-7 points

26.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
71
ILLINOIS
72
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
68
ILLINOIS
72
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 ILL @ HOU 65 - 55
Mar 20, 2022 HOU @ ILL 68 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +58.0% more
Houston: 5.9 vs Illinois: 3.7
Blocks (L5) +21.6% more
Houston: 4.2 vs Illinois: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
Houston: 76.0% vs Illinois: 71.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Houston: 38.7% vs Illinois: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 71.0 65
HOU Score 72.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 34.7 28.0 / 39.0
Assists 12.5 / 14.8 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.5 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 47.7 34.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 71.6 100.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 41.8 / 42.3 34.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.9 / 3.7 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 7.6 5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
HOU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
HOU
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ILL
HOU
ILL
ML
70% 26-11
65% 24-13
68% 23-11
57% 20-15
ATS
70% 26-11
70% 26-11
68% 23-11
57% 20-15
TTL
59% 22-15
57% 21-16
100% 34-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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