SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
54-18 | Road
123
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
24-47 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
SPURS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
2.2%
SA By 8-14 points
8.0%
MEM By 1-7 points
0.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
137
SAN ANTONIO
Memphis
110
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
San Antonio
110
SAN ANTONIO
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+16.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.5
Loss
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
SA @ MEM
123 - 98
Jan 6, 2026
SA @ MEM
105 - 106
Dec 2, 2025
MEM @ SA
119 - 126
Nov 18, 2025
MEM @ SA
101 - 111
Mar 1, 2025
SA @ MEM
130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.1% more
San Antonio: 6.7
vs
Memphis: 3.8
Rebounding (L5)
+31.3% more
San Antonio: 52.5
vs
Memphis: 36.1
Assists (L5)
+30.0% more
San Antonio: 31.5
vs
Memphis: 22.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
San Antonio: 49.0%
vs
Memphis: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
137.0
123
MEM Score
110.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 36.4
32.0 / 35.0
Assists
22.0 / 31.5
26.0 / 36.0
Blocks
3.8 / 6.7
3.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 49.0
40.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
82.2 / 86.6
70.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 52.5
33.0 / 59.0
Steals
9.4 / 6.0
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 12.9
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
SA
MEM
SA
ML
57%
59-44
60%
111-73
50%
41-41
58%
61-44
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
107-76-1
50%
41-41
58%
61-44
TTL
70%
71-31-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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