Home / NHL Projections NHL / Rangers @ Maple Leafs NYR @ TOR

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

28-34-9  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Mar 25 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

30-29-13  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Igor Shesterkin
GOALTENDER

Igor Shesterkin

#31 | Goaltender
@
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Igor Shesterkin None-None 4.13 0.778 --
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.13 GAA --
0.778 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
RANGERS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
RangersNYR (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NYR By 1 goal

12.1%

NYR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TOR By 1 goal

19.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW YORK
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 NYR @ TOR 3 - 4
Mar 5, 2026 TOR @ NYR 2 - 6
Oct 16, 2025 NYR @ TOR 1 - 2
Mar 20, 2025 TOR @ NYR 4 - 3
Feb 28, 2025 TOR @ NYR 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +127.8% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs New York: 12.1
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.1% more
Toronto: 26.1 vs New York: 21.9
Power Play % (L5) +47.2%
New York: 48.5% vs Toronto: 1.3%
Hits (L5) +28.6% more
New York: 29.4 vs Toronto: 21.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYR Score 2.0 3
TOR Score 3.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
37%MONEY63%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYR
TOR
NYR
ML
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
ATS
0% 0-4
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
TTL
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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