Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolf Pack @ Tigers NEV @ AUB

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

24-12  |  Road

69
FINAL
Wed, Mar 25 • 9:00 PM ET
Neville Arena
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

19-16  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
WOLF PACK --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Nevada)
Wolf PackNEV (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolf Pack Cover

81.6%

Tigers Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NEV -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

NEV By 1-7 points

24.3%

NEV By 8-14 points

26.8%

AUB By 1-7 points

12.2%

AUB By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
NEVADA
73
AUBURN
Simulated Score
77
NEVADA
82
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolf Pack Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolf Pack (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 NEV @ AUB 69 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +21.8% more
Nevada: 6.3 vs Auburn: 5.0
Assists (L5) +17.2% more
Nevada: 16.6 vs Auburn: 13.8
Free Throw % (L5) +9.2%
Nevada: 83.8% vs Auburn: 74.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Nevada: 46.6% vs Auburn: 44.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 82.0 69
AUB Score 73.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 28.8 25.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.8 / 16.6 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 46.6 49.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 83.8 64.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 38.7 31.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.0 / 6.3 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 10.0 7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
NEV
AUB
NEV
ML
58% 22-16
62% 23-14
75% 24-8
73% 27-10
ATS
74% 28-10
73% 27-10
75% 24-8
73% 27-10
TTL
53% 20-18
49% 18-19
100% 32-0
100% 37-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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