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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

29-29-13  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Mar 24 • 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

39-23-8  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
@
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Anthony Stolarz None-None 2.01 0.900 --
Jeremy Swayman None-None 3.05 0.912 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.01 Ldr GAA 3.05
0.900 Save % Ldr 0.912
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
BRUINS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 BruinsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Bruins Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

BOS By 1 goal

19.7%

BOS By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
3
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bruins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 TOR @ BOS 4 - 2
Nov 11, 2025 TOR @ BOS 3 - 5
Nov 8, 2025 BOS @ TOR 5 - 3
Feb 25, 2025 TOR @ BOS 5 - 4
Jan 4, 2025 BOS @ TOR 4 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +30.4% more
Boston: 4.3 vs Toronto: 3.3
Hits (L5) +12.8% more
Boston: 23.1 vs Toronto: 20.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +32.8% more
Toronto: 27.6 vs Boston: 18.6
Shots on Goal (L5) +13.8% more
Toronto: 26.1 vs Boston: 22.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 4
BOS Score 4.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
33%MONEY67%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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