Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Mavericks GS @ DAL

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

33-38  |  Road

137
FINAL
Mon, Mar 23 • 9:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

23-48  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
WARRIORS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

46.0%

Mavericks Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

DAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
117
GOLDEN STATE
116
DALLAS
Simulated Score
113
GOLDEN STATE
117
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o230.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 GS @ DAL 137 - 131
Jan 22, 2026 GS @ DAL 115 - 123
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ GS 116 - 126
Feb 23, 2025 DAL @ GS 102 - 126
Feb 12, 2025 GS @ DAL 107 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.2% more
Golden State: 19.2 vs Dallas: 14.4
Steals (L5) +20.4% more
Golden State: 9.2 vs Dallas: 7.3
Blocks (L5) +36.5% more
Dallas: 5.2 vs Golden State: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +28.6% more
Dallas: 46.3 vs Golden State: 36.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 117.0 137
DAL Score 116.0 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 33.0 44.0 / 36.0
Assists 26.3 / 25.3 37.0 / 39.0
Blocks 5.2 / 3.8 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 46.6 59.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 77.2 65.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 46.3 / 36.0 26.0 / 49.0
Steals 7.3 / 9.2 13.0 / 16.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 19.2 23.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
GS
DAL
GS
ML
62% 63-39
55% 95-79
54% 44-37
58% 49-35
ATS
67% 68-34
58% 101-73
54% 44-37
58% 49-35
TTL
59% 60-41-1
77% 134-40
100% 81-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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