SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
53-18 | Road
136
MIAMI
HEATMIA
38-33 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
HEAT
100%
SPURS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
15.3%
SA By 8-14 points
25.3%
MIA By 1-7 points
4.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
127
SAN ANTONIO
Miami
112
MIAMI
Simulated Score
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Spurs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u244.0
Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u244.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
SA @ MIA
136 - 111
Oct 30, 2025
MIA @ SA
101 - 107
Oct 8, 2025
SA @ MIA
112 - 107
Feb 1, 2025
MIA @ SA
105 - 103
Jan 19, 2025
SA @ MIA
107 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.5% more
San Antonio: 5.6
vs
Miami: 2.6
Rebounding (L5)
+11.9% more
San Antonio: 47.7
vs
Miami: 42.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
San Antonio: 85.4%
vs
Miami: 79.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
San Antonio: 37.1%
vs
Miami: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
127.0
136
MIA Score
112.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 37.1
31.0 / 35.0
Assists
29.2 / 30.7
29.0 / 33.0
Blocks
2.6 / 5.6
8.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 49.6
40.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
79.3 / 85.4
95.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 47.7
38.0 / 62.0
Steals
6.5 / 5.5
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 11.8
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SA
MIA
SA
ML
48%
46-50
60%
111-73
59%
48-34
58%
61-44
ATS
51%
49-47
58%
107-76-1
59%
48-34
58%
61-44
TTL
59%
57-39
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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