Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Celtics MIN @ BOS

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

43-28  |  Road

102
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 8:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

47-23  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
CELTICS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

42.1%

Celtics Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

MIN By 1-7 points

26.8%

MIN By 8-14 points

18.6%

BOS By 1-7 points

23.0%

BOS By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
118
MINNESOTA
116
BOSTON
Simulated Score
110
MINNESOTA
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o221.5 Loss
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u221.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 MIN @ BOS 102 - 92
Nov 29, 2025 BOS @ MIN 115 - 119
Jan 2, 2025 BOS @ MIN 118 - 115
Nov 24, 2024 MIN @ BOS 105 - 107
Jan 10, 2024 MIN @ BOS 120 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.0% more
Minnesota: 5.7 vs Boston: 2.6
Steals (L5) +30.3% more
Minnesota: 10.0 vs Boston: 7.0
Turnovers (L5) +16.4% more
Minnesota: 16.4 vs Boston: 13.7
Assists (L5) +11.7% more
Minnesota: 26.6 vs Boston: 23.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 118.0 102
BOS Score 116.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 37.3 27.0 / 36.0
Assists 23.5 / 26.6 17.0 / 24.0
Blocks 2.6 / 5.7 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 47.9 36.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 89.5 / 78.9 83.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 50.0 / 44.2 53.0 / 56.0
Steals 7.0 / 10.0 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 16.4 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIN
BOS
MIN
ML
57% 61-46
54% 63-53
53% 47-41
54% 50-43
ATS
59% 61-43-3
58% 67-49
53% 47-41
54% 50-43
TTL
56% 60-47
63% 72-43-1
100% 88-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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