Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawks @ Golden Bears JOES @ CAL

SAINT JOSEPH'S

HAWKSJOES

23-11  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

22-11  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
100%
HAWKS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
HawksJOES (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

93.3%

Golden Bears Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JOES -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)

JOES By 1-7 points

15.3%

JOES By 8-14 points

25.3%

CAL By 1-7 points

4.8%

CAL By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
88
SAINT JOSEPH'S
73
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
73
SAINT JOSEPH'S
78
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 JOES @ CAL 76 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +57.4% more
Saint Joseph's: 3.8 vs California: 1.6
Rebounding (L5) +16.6% more
Saint Joseph's: 39.1 vs California: 32.6
Steals (L5) +24.2% more
California: 6.7 vs Saint Joseph's: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5) +13.4%
California: 82.5% vs Saint Joseph's: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JOES Score 88.0 76
CAL Score 73.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 33.5 38.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.9 / 13.9 14.0 / 18.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 42.4 42.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 69.1 58.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 32.6 / 39.1 39.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.7 / 5.4 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 11.4 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JOES Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
CAL
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JOES Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
CAL
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.3
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
JOES
CAL
JOES
ML
61% 20-13
51% 18-17
77% 24-7
61% 20-13
ATS
64% 21-12
60% 21-14
78% 25-7
61% 20-13
TTL
70% 23-10
54% 19-16
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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