ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
29-6 | Road
67
KANSAS
JAYHAWKSKU
24-10 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
0%
JAYHAWKS
100%
RED STORM
--
JAYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (St. John's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)
SJU By 1-7 points
21.6%
SJU By 8-14 points
27.4%
KU By 1-7 points
9.3%
KU By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. John's
82
ST. JOHN'S
Kansas
71
KANSAS
Simulated Score
St. John's
71
ST. JOHN'S
Kansas
78
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jayhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Jayhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
SJU @ KU
67 - 65
Dec 3, 2021
KU @ SJU
95 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.6% more
St. John's: 5.8
vs
Kansas: 4.0
Assists (L5)
+30.7% more
St. John's: 14.8
vs
Kansas: 10.3
Steals (L5)
+16.5% more
St. John's: 6.5
vs
Kansas: 5.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
St. John's: 46.9%
vs
Kansas: 37.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJU Score
82.0
67
KU Score
71.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.7 / 30.7
36.0 / 31.0
Assists
10.3 / 14.8
9.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.8
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
37.6 / 46.9
44.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
77.4 / 72.0
71.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
40.3 / 38.8
44.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.4 / 6.5
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 9.1
16.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
KU
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
KU
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
SJU
KU
SJU
ML
57%
20-15
62%
18-11
68%
21-10
62%
18-11
ATS
49%
17-18
66%
19-10
68%
21-10
62%
18-11
TTL
60%
21-14
59%
17-12
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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