Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Hawks GS @ ATL

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

33-37  |  Road

110
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 8:00 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

38-32  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
HAWKS
0%
WARRIORS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Atlanta)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

27.4%

Hawks Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

GS By 1-7 points

16.9%

GS By 8-14 points

6.8%

ATL By 1-7 points

26.8%

ATL By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
115
GOLDEN STATE
121
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
110
GOLDEN STATE
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawks (+9) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.5 Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 GS @ ATL 110 - 126
Jan 11, 2026 ATL @ GS 124 - 111
Mar 22, 2025 GS @ ATL 115 - 124
Nov 20, 2024 ATL @ GS 97 - 120
Feb 3, 2024 GS @ ATL 134 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +13.3% more
Atlanta: 5.4 vs Golden State: 4.7
Steals (L5) +12.0% more
Atlanta: 10.3 vs Golden State: 9.2
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Atlanta: 43.7 vs Golden State: 39.5
Assists (L5) +8.5% more
Atlanta: 28.6 vs Golden State: 26.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 115.0 110
ATL Score 121.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 31.4 32.0 / 36.0
Assists 28.6 / 26.4 28.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.7 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 44.9 54.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 78.4 / 77.7 85.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 39.5 41.0 / 29.0
Steals 10.3 / 9.2 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 18.4 18.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
ATL Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
GS
ATL
GS
ML
50% 52-52
55% 95-79
55% 48-40
58% 49-35
ATS
53% 55-48-1
58% 101-73
55% 48-40
58% 49-35
TTL
53% 55-48-1
77% 134-40
100% 88-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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