MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
28-41 | Road
108
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
39-31 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
SUNS
0%
BUCKS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
MIL By 1-7 points
24.3%
MIL By 8-14 points
13.7%
PHX By 1-7 points
26.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
103
MILWAUKEE
Phoenix
104
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+11)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u217.0
Win
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u217.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MIL @ PHX
108 - 105
Mar 10, 2026
PHX @ MIL
129 - 114
Apr 1, 2025
PHX @ MIL
123 - 133
Mar 24, 2025
MIL @ PHX
106 - 108
Mar 17, 2024
PHX @ MIL
129 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.3% more
Phoenix: 9.1
vs
Milwaukee: 7.3
Blocks (L5)
+19.9% more
Phoenix: 3.8
vs
Milwaukee: 3.2
Rebounding (L5)
+9.7% more
Phoenix: 41.2
vs
Milwaukee: 37.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.3%
Phoenix: 77.2%
vs
Milwaukee: 70.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
103.0
108
PHX Score
104.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 39.0
38.0 / 41.0
Assists
25.4 / 24.1
27.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.2
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 46.6
45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 70.9
56.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
41.2 / 37.6
38.0 / 42.0
Steals
9.1 / 7.3
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 15.0
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MIL
PHX
MIL
ML
57%
60-45
64%
61-35
51%
45-43
60%
49-32
ATS
58%
59-43-3
68%
65-31
51%
45-43
60%
49-32
TTL
59%
61-42-2
55%
53-43
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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