INDIANA
PACERSIND
15-55 | Road
119
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
52-18 | Home
134
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
SPURS
0%
PACERS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
IND By 1-7 points
1.1%
IND By 8-14 points
0.1%
SA By 1-7 points
5.8%
SA By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
98
INDIANA
San Antonio
120
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Indiana
107
INDIANA
San Antonio
122
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.0
Loss
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Sim
u234.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
IND @ SA
119 - 134
Jan 2, 2026
SA @ IND
123 - 113
Oct 13, 2025
SA @ IND
124 - 108
Jan 25, 2025
IND @ SA
136 - 98
Jan 23, 2025
SA @ IND
140 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+19.8% more
San Antonio: 47.1
vs
Indiana: 39.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
San Antonio: 84.1%
vs
Indiana: 80.6%
Steals (L5)
+21.6% more
Indiana: 7.3
vs
San Antonio: 5.7
Turnovers (L5)
+20.3% more
Indiana: 14.7
vs
San Antonio: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
98.0
119
SA Score
120.0
134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 40.7
38.0 / 46.0
Assists
29.6 / 30.1
33.0 / 38.0
Blocks
5.4 / 5.9
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 48.8
55.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
84.1 / 80.6
88.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
47.1 / 39.3
49.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.7 / 7.3
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 14.7
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
IND
SA
IND
ML
60%
111-73
48%
47-50
58%
61-44
54%
45-38
ATS
58%
107-76-1
59%
57-40
58%
61-44
54%
45-38
TTL
74%
134-47-3
54%
52-45
100%
105-0
100%
83-0
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